construction-starts-2017-2024
thesis
Of 52 nuclear reactor construction starts worldwide from 2017 through 2024, 48 used Chinese or Russian designs.
verified-primary
2024-12-31
← Siderian
Public evidence
Evidence Ledger
The public evidence ledger records publisher, date, locator, and access date for every material claim. Evidence cut: 15 August 2026. Vendor statements are market evidence, not regulatory findings; announcements are demand signals, not proof of readiness.
Status
Dataset cut 15 August 2026 · editorial revision 5 September 2026; source access dates listed individually
Status vocabulary
- verified-primary
- Direct government, regulatory, multilateral, company, or academic record.
- verified-secondary
- Corroborated reporting or Siderian analysis of a public register.
- self-reported
- Current Siderian status or intent; not independently verified.
- disputed
- Material public disagreement exists.
- superseded
- Retained for history but replaced by a newer record.
- unverified
- Insufficient support for public reliance.
Claim register
Public copy, status, date, caveat.
construction-starts-2025-2026
thesis
A Siderian audit identified 20 nuclear reactor construction starts from January 2025 through 15 August 2026: 12 Chinese designs, 3 Russian, 2 South Korean, 2 Indian, and 1 Western-origin design in Canada.
verified-secondary
2026-08-15
Caveat: China-and-Russia versus West is therefore 15–1; non-West versus West is 19–1. Siderian classifies by the active design family and program, not by construction country or original technology ancestry. Uzbekistan's June RITM-200N ceremony is excluded: WNA does not understand the pour to be first concrete for a safety-related reactor building and does not list the unit in its under-construction register.
data-centre-demand
thesis
The IEA estimates data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024 and projects about 945 TWh in 2030 in its Base Case.
verified-primary
2025-04-10
doe-supply-window
thesis
In June 2026, the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $17.5 billion conditional loan commitment for long-lead nuclear supply-chain capacity supporting up to ten large-scale reactors.
verified-primary
2026-06-23
Caveat: A conditional commitment is not a final loan guarantee or evidence of project readiness.
china-nuclear-lcoe-model
economics
The joint IEA/OECD NEA 2020 model reports Chinese new-nuclear LCOE of $49.92, $66.01, and $82.08/MWh at 3%, 7%, and 10% discount rates, respectively.
verified-primary
2020-12-09
Caveat: Values are in 2018 USD, assume an 85% capacity factor and 2025 commissioning, and are model outputs rather than an audited current fleet average.
china-nuclear-tariff
economics
China's National Development and Reform Commission set a national benchmark on-grid tariff of CNY 0.43/kWh for qualifying new nuclear units in 2013.
verified-primary
2013-07-03
Caveat: A regulated tariff is a revenue benchmark, not a measure of plant cost or LCOE, and should not be converted into a current dollar cost without a stated exchange rate.
ap1000-lcoe-pathway
economics
INL's 2025 moderate U.S. AP1000 model reports tenth-series LCOE of $49/MWh with a 40% investment tax credit and $65/MWh without it, in 2024 USD.
verified-primary
2025-06-12
Caveat: INL describes the projections as preliminary, academic, and not investor-grade. They are a public pathway model, not a Siderian result or guarantee.
ap1000-description
standard
AP1000 is a large-scale pressurized-water nuclear power plant design with six units in commercial operation.
verified-primary
2026-08-15
founder-education
founder
Demian Reidel trained in physics at Instituto Balseiro, earned a master's degree in financial mathematics from the University of Chicago, and a PhD in economics from Harvard University.
verified-primary
2026-08-15
founder-bcra
founder
Reidel served on the board of the Central Bank of Argentina as Second Vice President from 2015 to 2018 and represented the institution in the G20 finance process.
verified-primary
2026-08-15
founder-markets
founder
His earlier career included roles at J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs and co-founding QFR Capital Management, which exceeded $3 billion in assets under management during his tenure.
verified-primary
2026-08-15
founder-government
founder
He served as an ad honorem presidential adviser from June 2024 until July 2025 and was identified by the Argentine government as responsible for its 2024 nuclear plan.
verified-primary
2025-07-17
founder-nasa
founder
He chaired the board of Nucleoeléctrica Argentina from April 2025 to February 2026.
verified-secondary
2026-02-09
Caveat: This was a board-governance role, not day-to-day plant operation or reactor delivery.
founder-public-inquiry
founder
In May 2026, press reports stated that a federal prosecutor requested an inquiry concerning corporate-card administration during Reidel's Nucleoeléctrica board tenure; Reidel separately denied procurement allegations and requested an immediate, exhaustive investigation.
verified-secondary
2026-08-15
Caveat: These are reported allegations and procedural steps, not findings of wrongdoing. The sources reviewed through 15 August 2026 do not establish an adjudicated finding against Reidel.
founder-science
founder
Reidel co-authored peer-reviewed work on random neural networks in 1997.
verified-primary
2026-08-15
governance-current
governance
Siderian's assurance governance, independent technical review, conflicts process, and appeals mechanism are proposed and in formation.
self-reported
2026-08-15
Siderian status
Caveat: No independent assurance authority has yet been appointed.
Figure methodology
figure-01
Figure 1 · Selected operating-fleet histories
Selected U.S., German and Chinese trajectories reconstructed at intervals from public reactor records. The 2026 Chinese endpoint is WNA’s operable count of 64, not the narrower PRIS operational count. These selections are not the whole Western fleet. Operating stock is neither annual construction cadence nor generating capacity; country case studies supply the institutional context.
figure-02
Figure 2 · Construction starts, 2017–2024
IEA’s 52 starts: 25 Chinese, 23 Russian, two UK / European and two South Korean / national designs. Each cell represents a reactor start, not equal electrical capacity. The comparison describes design origin, not construction location or a political alliance.
2024-12-31
figure-03
Figure 3 · Published construction register, 2025–2026
Siderian audit of first-concrete dates in the public reactor register. The 20 starts comprise 12 Chinese designs, 3 Russian, 2 South Korean, 2 Indian, and Canada's BWRX-300. The West is therefore 1 against China and Russia's 15; South Korea and India are shown separately. Uzbekistan's ceremonial June pour is disclosed but excluded because WNA does not classify it as safety-related reactor-building first concrete or list the unit under construction.
figure-04
Figure 4 · Cost models: financing, repetition and policy
Separate panels preserve each study’s dollar year and assumptions. The IEA/NEA cases vary financing in 2018 USD; INL’s U.S. scenarios vary repetition and tax support in 2024 USD. No cross-study normalization, measured fleet-cost claim or Siderian-attributed saving is implied.
Published reactor-level register
What the 15:1 comparison counts.
20 starts since January 2025: 12 Chinese, 3 Russian, 2 South Korean, 2 Indian, and 1 Western. South Korea and India are not assigned to either side of the China-and-Russia versus West score.
| Start | Reactor | Construction country | Active design program | Score bucket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | Lufeng 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-03-20 | Leningrad 2-4 | Russia | Russian | China + Russia |
| 2025-05-08 | Shidaowan 2 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-05-20 | Shin-Hanul 3 | South Korea | South Korean | Other program |
| 2025-06-10 | Taipingling 3 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-08-10 | Jinqimen 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-11-18 | Zhaoyuan 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-11-19 | San'ao 3 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-12-16 | Ningde 6 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-12-22 | Lufeng 2 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-12-25 | Bailong 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2026-01-16 | Xuwei 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2026-01-31 | Kursk 2-3 | Russia | Russian | China + Russia |
| 2026-02-05 | Paks II-1 | Hungary | Russian | China + Russia |
| 2026-03-01 | Kaiga 5 | India | Indian | Other program |
| 2026-03-01 | Kaiga 6 | India | Indian | Other program |
| 2026-04-04 | Jinqimen 2 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2026-05-10 | Taipingling 4 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2026-05-29 | Shin-Hanul 4 | South Korea | South Korean | Other program |
| 2026-06-26 | Darlington SMR-1 | Canada | Western | West |
Source: World Nuclear Association under-construction register and reactor detail pages, cross-checked to Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission construction milestones. Paks II-1 is built in Hungary but counted as a Russian active design program. Uzbekistan's June RITM-200N ceremony is disclosed but excluded: WNA does not understand the pour to be first concrete for a safety-related reactor building and does not list the unit under construction as of this evidence cut.
Source register
Public records used on this site.
- 01
EDF
company
The energy of France for 80 yearsThe post-war electricity program and the response to the 1973 oil shock.
Published
2026 · historical overview
Accessed
2026-09-05
- 02
Emirates Nuclear Energy Company
company
Frequently Asked Questions About the Barakah PlantFour APR1400 units, the South Korean reference plants, and UAE licensing.
Published
Undated · maintained page
Accessed
2026-09-05
- 03
U.S. Department of Energy
government
Commercializing Advanced Nuclear Reactors Explained in Five ChartsCommitted orderbooks, project planning, standardization, workforce and supply-chain development. Scenarios are projections, not achieved cost reductions.
Published
2023-03-30
Accessed
2026-09-05
- 04
International Energy Agency
multilateral
Financing nuclear projectsConstruction risk, predictable cash flows, public support and the conditions for private financing.
Published
2025-01-16
Accessed
2026-09-05
- 05
International Energy Agency
multilateral
The Path to a New Era for Nuclear EnergyExecutive summary and construction-start dataset, 2017–2024
Published
2025-01-16
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 06
World Nuclear Association
institutional
World Nuclear Reactor Database — Under ConstructionUnder-construction reactor register; includes Darlington SMR-1 with a 26 June 2026 construction start
Published
2026-07-02
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 07
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Darlington SMR-1BWRX-300 listed under construction in Canada; construction start 26 June 2026; source record links to IAEA PRIS
Published
2026-06-26
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 08
Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
regulator
Darlington New Nuclear ProjectBWRX-300 construction licence and removal of the first regulatory hold point for the reactor-building foundation
Published
2026-03-31
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 09
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Reactor Database Global Dashboard441 operable reactors, 79 under construction, current country records, grid connections, and construction starts
Published
2026-07-02
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 10
Uzatom, Government of Uzbekistan
government
Construction launched for Uzbekistan's first integrated nuclear power plantOfficial account of the 4 June ceremonial concrete pour for the first RITM-200N unit
Published
2026-06-05
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 11
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Uranium in UzbekistanJune 2026 ceremonial concrete pour; not understood to be first concrete for a safety-related building
Published
2026-06-11
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 12
International Atomic Energy Agency, PRIS
multilateral
Reactor Status Reports — In Operation by CountryOperational-reactor country totals; PRIS listed China at 60 and the United States at 94 on 23 July 2026
Published
2026-07-23
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 13
International Energy Agency
multilateral
Energy and AIData-centre electricity demand, 2024 actual and 2030 Base Case
Published
2025-04-10
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 14
U.S. Department of Energy
government
Department of Energy Announces American Nuclear Supply Chain LoansConditional commitment, eligible projects, reactor count, and AP1000 description
Published
2026-06-23
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 15
World Bank Group
multilateral
World Bank Group and IAEA Formalize Partnership on Nuclear EnergyPartnership announcement and World Bank nuclear re-engagement
Published
2025-06-26
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 16
OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and International Energy Agency
multilateral
Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020Table 3.13a; China new-nuclear LCOE at 3%, 7%, and 10% discount rates; 85% capacity factor; 2018 USD
Published
2020-12-09
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 17
National Energy Administration of China
government
NDRC Improves the Nuclear-Power Price Formation MechanismNational benchmark on-grid tariff of CNY 0.43/kWh for qualifying new nuclear units; a tariff, not an LCOE measure
Published
2013-07-03
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 18
Nature
academic
China reins in the spiralling construction costs of nuclear powerStandardization, program continuity, localization, and workforce reuse
Published
2025-07-23
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 19
Idaho National Laboratory
government
Potential Cost Reduction in New Nuclear Deployments Based on Recent AP1000 ExperienceINL/RPT-25-84701; Table 8 AP1000 LCOE pathways in 2024 USD; projections explicitly preliminary and not investor-grade
Published
2025-06-12
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 20
Westinghouse Electric Company
company
Westinghouse Establishes Standard AP1000 Plant for Fleet-Scale Deployment in U.S.Vendor announcement concerning Revision 20 and the Vogtle Unit 4 reference plant
Published
2026-04-06
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 21
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
regulator
AP1000 Design CertificationCertification history and Revision 20 renewal-request status
Published
2026-03-27
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 22
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
regulator
Explainer on the Interconnection Final RuleFirst-ready, first-served clusters, readiness deposits, and withdrawal penalties
Published
2023-07-28
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 23
U.S. Department of Energy
government
5 Ways the U.S. Nuclear Energy Industry Is Evolving in 2024Updated Advanced Nuclear Liftoff findings on repeat deployment and orderbooks
Published
2024-09-30
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 24
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Nuclear Power in China64 operable reactors, 37 under construction, and current construction program
Published
2026-08-05
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 25
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Nuclear Power in FranceFleet size, generation share, and standardization
Published
2026-07-01
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 26
Westinghouse Electric Company
company
AP1000 Pressurized Water ReactorOperating-unit count and product description
Published
2026-07-01
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 27
Boletín Oficial de la República Argentina
government
Decree 585/2024 — Appointment of Demian ReidelAd honorem appointment effective 10 June 2024
Published
2024-07-03
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 28
Boletín Oficial de la República Argentina
government
Decree 481/2025 — Resignation of Demian ReidelResignation accepted effective 17 July 2025
Published
2025-07-18
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 29
Central Bank of Argentina
government
BCRA Board and Institutional History, 1935–2025Board register listing Demian Reidel as Second Vice President
Published
2025-12-01
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 30
Central Bank of Argentina
government
G20: New Proposals to Enhance InfrastructureDemian Reidel identified as G20 Central Bank Deputy
Published
2018-05-19
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 31
Harvard Kennedy School, Mossavar-Rahmani Center
institutional
Demian Reidel — Senior Fellow profileEducation and historical roles in central banking, finance, and markets
Published
2019-01-01
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 32
Government of Argentina
government
President Javier Milei Announces Argentina's Nuclear PlanReidel identified as responsible for the nuclear plan
Published
2024-12-20
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 33
International Atomic Energy Agency
multilateral
Speaker biography — Demian ReidelBiography for the 2025 International Conference on Nuclear Security
Published
2025-05-01
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 34
Boletín Oficial de la República Argentina
government
Nucleoeléctrica Argentina board appointmentBoard appointment recorded following the 23 April 2025 assembly
Published
2025-04-30
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 35
La Nación
news
Demian Reidel left the board of Nucleoeléctrica ArgentinaReported end of board tenure
Published
2026-02-09
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 36
El Cronista
news
Demian Reidel fue imputado por los gastos con tarjetas de crédito corporativas en NucleoeléctricaReport that a federal prosecutor requested an inquiry into whether corporate-card administration involved criminally relevant irregularities; no adjudication reported
Published
2026-05-08
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 37
Infobae
news
Demian Reidel pidió una investigación exhaustiva y negó acusaciones por supuestas irregularidades en contratos de NucleoeléctricaReport on Reidel's denial of procurement allegations and request for an immediate, exhaustive investigation
Published
2026-05-26
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 38
Physica A
academic
Statistical properties of random asymmetrical neural networksPeer-reviewed article; authors include D. Reidel
Published
1997-07-01
Accessed
2026-08-15
- 39
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
regulator
Progress at Vogtle Unit 4Documentary photograph, licensed CC BY 2.0
Published
2024-04-01
Accessed
2026-08-15