construction-starts-2017-2024
thesis
Of 52 nuclear reactor construction starts worldwide from 2017 through 2024, 48 used Chinese or Russian designs.
verified-primary
2024-12-31
← Siderian
Public evidence
Evidence Ledger
The public evidence ledger records publisher, date, locator, and access date for every material claim. Evidence cut: 28 July 2026. Vendor statements are market evidence, not regulatory findings; announcements are demand signals, not proof of readiness.
Status
Evidence cut 28 July 2026
Status vocabulary
- verified-primary
- Direct government, regulatory, multilateral, company, or academic record.
- verified-secondary
- Corroborated reporting or Siderian analysis of a public register.
- self-reported
- Current Siderian status or intent; not independently verified.
- disputed
- Material public disagreement exists.
- superseded
- Retained for history but replaced by a newer record.
- unverified
- Insufficient support for public reliance.
Claim register
Public copy, status, date, caveat.
construction-starts-2025-2026
thesis
A Siderian audit identified 20 nuclear reactor construction starts from January 2025 through 28 July 2026: 12 Chinese designs, 3 Russian, 2 South Korean, 2 Indian, and 1 Western-origin design in Canada.
verified-secondary
2026-07-28
Caveat: China-and-Russia versus West is therefore 15–1; non-West versus West is 19–1. Siderian classifies by the active design family and program, not by construction country or original technology ancestry.
data-centre-demand
thesis
The IEA estimates data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024 and projects about 945 TWh in 2030 in its Base Case.
verified-primary
2025-04-10
doe-supply-window
thesis
In June 2026, the U.S. Department of Energy announced a $17.5 billion conditional loan commitment for long-lead nuclear supply-chain capacity supporting up to ten large-scale reactors.
verified-primary
2026-06-23
Caveat: A conditional commitment is not a final loan guarantee or evidence of project readiness.
china-nuclear-lcoe-model
economics
The joint IEA/OECD NEA 2020 model reports Chinese new-nuclear LCOE of $49.92, $66.01, and $82.08/MWh at 3%, 7%, and 10% discount rates, respectively.
verified-primary
2020-12-09
Caveat: Values are in 2018 USD, assume an 85% capacity factor and 2025 commissioning, and are model outputs rather than an audited current fleet average.
china-nuclear-tariff
economics
China's National Development and Reform Commission set a national benchmark on-grid tariff of CNY 0.43/kWh for qualifying new nuclear units in 2013.
verified-primary
2013-07-03
Caveat: A regulated tariff is a revenue benchmark, not a measure of plant cost or LCOE, and should not be converted into a current dollar cost without a stated exchange rate.
ap1000-lcoe-pathway
economics
INL's 2025 moderate U.S. AP1000 model reports tenth-series LCOE of $49/MWh with a 40% investment tax credit and $65/MWh without it, in 2024 USD.
verified-primary
2025-06-12
Caveat: INL describes the projections as preliminary, academic, and not investor-grade. They are a public pathway model, not a Siderian result or guarantee.
ap1000-description
standard
AP1000 is a large-scale pressurized-water nuclear power plant design with six units in commercial operation.
verified-primary
2026-07-28
founder-education
founder
Demian Reidel trained in physics at Instituto Balseiro, earned a master's degree in financial mathematics from the University of Chicago, and a PhD in economics from Harvard University.
verified-primary
2026-07-28
founder-bcra
founder
Reidel served on the board of the Central Bank of Argentina as Second Vice President from 2015 to 2018 and represented the institution in the G20 finance process.
verified-primary
2026-07-28
founder-markets
founder
His earlier career included roles at J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs and co-founding QFR Capital Management, which exceeded $3 billion in assets under management during his tenure.
verified-primary
2026-07-28
founder-government
founder
He served as an ad honorem presidential adviser from June 2024 until July 2025 and was identified by the Argentine government as responsible for its 2024 nuclear plan.
verified-primary
2025-07-17
founder-nasa
founder
He chaired the board of Nucleoeléctrica Argentina from April 2025 to February 2026.
verified-secondary
2026-02-09
Caveat: This was a board-governance role, not day-to-day plant operation or reactor delivery.
founder-science
founder
Reidel co-authored peer-reviewed work on random neural networks in 1997.
verified-primary
2026-07-28
governance-current
governance
Siderian's assurance governance, independent technical review, conflicts process, and appeals mechanism are proposed and in formation.
self-reported
2026-07-28
Siderian status
Caveat: No independent assurance authority has yet been appointed.
Figure methodology
figure-01
Operating reactor divergence, 1970–2026
Static reconstruction at selected intervals from public operating-reactor registers. The 2026 endpoint uses the World Nuclear Association's 61-reactor China count after Taipingling 2 connected on 4 July; IAEA PRIS still listed 60 on 23 July. Intended to show directional continuity, not annual project accounting.
2026-07-28
wna-reactor-global · wna-china · iaea-pris-operational-2026
figure-02
Construction starts by design origin, 2017–2024
IEA construction-start count regrouped by design origin.
2024-12-31
iea-nuclear-2025
figure-03
Construction starts by design origin, January 2025–28 July 2026
Siderian audit of first-concrete dates in the public reactor register. The 20 starts comprise 12 Chinese designs, 3 Russian, 2 South Korean, 2 Indian, and Canada's BWRX-300. The West is therefore 1 against China and Russia's 15; South Korea and India are shown separately.
2026-07-28
wna-reactor-db · wna-darlington-2026 · cnsc-darlington-2026
Reactor-level audit
The math behind 15–1.
20 starts since January 2025: 12 Chinese, 3 Russian, 2 South Korean, 2 Indian, and 1 Western. South Korea and India are not assigned to either side of the China-and-Russia versus West score.
| Start | Reactor | Construction country | Active design program | Score bucket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-24 | Lufeng 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-03-20 | Leningrad 2-4 | Russia | Russian | China + Russia |
| 2025-05-08 | Shidaowan 2 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-05-20 | Shin-Hanul 3 | South Korea | South Korean | Other program |
| 2025-06-10 | Taipingling 3 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-08-10 | Jinqimen 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-11-18 | Zhaoyuan 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-11-19 | San'ao 3 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-12-16 | Ningde 6 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-12-22 | Lufeng 2 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2025-12-25 | Bailong 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2026-01-16 | Xuwei 1 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2026-01-31 | Kursk 2-3 | Russia | Russian | China + Russia |
| 2026-02-05 | Paks II-1 | Hungary | Russian | China + Russia |
| 2026-03-01 | Kaiga 5 | India | Indian | Other program |
| 2026-03-01 | Kaiga 6 | India | Indian | Other program |
| 2026-04-04 | Jinqimen 2 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2026-05-10 | Taipingling 4 | China | Chinese | China + Russia |
| 2026-05-29 | Shin-Hanul 4 | South Korea | South Korean | Other program |
| 2026-06-26 | Darlington SMR-1 | Canada | Western | West |
Source: World Nuclear Association under-construction register and reactor detail pages, cross-checked to Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission construction milestones. Paks II-1 is built in Hungary but counted as a Russian active design program.
Source register
Public records used on this site.
- 01
International Energy Agency
multilateral
The Path to a New Era for Nuclear EnergyExecutive summary and construction-start dataset, 2017–2024
Published
2025-01-16
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 02
World Nuclear Association
institutional
World Nuclear Reactor Database — Under ConstructionUnder-construction reactor register; includes Darlington SMR-1 with a 26 June 2026 construction start
Published
2026-07-02
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 03
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Darlington SMR-1BWRX-300 listed under construction in Canada; construction start 26 June 2026; source record links to IAEA PRIS
Published
2026-06-26
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 04
Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission
regulator
Darlington New Nuclear ProjectBWRX-300 construction licence and removal of the first regulatory hold point for the reactor-building foundation
Published
2026-03-30
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 05
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Reactor Database Global DashboardOperable-reactor totals, country records, grid connections, and closure dates
Published
2026-07-02
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 06
International Atomic Energy Agency, PRIS
multilateral
Reactor Status Reports — In Operation by CountryOperational-reactor country totals; PRIS listed China at 60 and the United States at 94 on 23 July 2026
Published
2026-07-23
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 07
International Energy Agency
multilateral
Energy and AIData-centre electricity demand, 2024 actual and 2030 Base Case
Published
2025-04-10
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 08
U.S. Department of Energy
government
Department of Energy Announces American Nuclear Supply Chain LoansConditional commitment, eligible projects, reactor count, and AP1000 description
Published
2026-06-23
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 09
World Bank Group
multilateral
World Bank Group and IAEA Formalize Partnership on Nuclear EnergyPartnership announcement and World Bank nuclear re-engagement
Published
2025-06-26
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 10
OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and International Energy Agency
multilateral
Projected Costs of Generating Electricity 2020Table 3.13a; China new-nuclear LCOE at 3%, 7%, and 10% discount rates; 85% capacity factor; 2018 USD
Published
2020-12-09
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 11
National Energy Administration of China
government
NDRC Improves the Nuclear-Power Price Formation MechanismNational benchmark on-grid tariff of CNY 0.43/kWh for qualifying new nuclear units; a tariff, not an LCOE measure
Published
2013-07-03
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 12
Nature
academic
China reins in the spiralling construction costs of nuclear powerStandardization, program continuity, localization, and workforce reuse
Published
2025-07-23
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 13
Idaho National Laboratory
government
Potential Cost Reduction in New Nuclear Deployments Based on Recent AP1000 ExperienceINL/RPT-25-84701; Table 8 AP1000 LCOE pathways in 2024 USD; projections explicitly preliminary and not investor-grade
Published
2025-06-12
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 14
Westinghouse Electric Company
company
Westinghouse Establishes Standard AP1000 Plant for Fleet-Scale Deployment in U.S.Vendor announcement concerning Revision 20 and the Vogtle Unit 4 reference plant
Published
2026-04-06
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 15
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
regulator
AP1000 Design CertificationCertification history and Revision 20 renewal-request status
Published
2026-03-27
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 16
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
regulator
Explainer on the Interconnection Final RuleFirst-ready, first-served clusters, readiness deposits, and withdrawal penalties
Published
2023-07-28
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 17
U.S. Department of Energy
government
Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced NuclearOrderbook and repeat-deployment conditions for commercial liftoff
Published
2024-09-30
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 18
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Nuclear Power in ChinaOperating capacity and construction program
Published
2026-07-01
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 19
World Nuclear Association
institutional
Nuclear Power in FranceFleet size, generation share, and standardization
Published
2026-07-01
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 20
Westinghouse Electric Company
company
AP1000 Pressurized Water ReactorOperating-unit count and product description
Published
2026-07-01
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 21
Boletín Oficial de la República Argentina
government
Decree 585/2024 — Appointment of Demian ReidelAd honorem appointment effective 10 June 2024
Published
2024-07-03
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 22
Boletín Oficial de la República Argentina
government
Decree 481/2025 — Resignation of Demian ReidelResignation accepted effective 17 July 2025
Published
2025-07-18
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 23
Central Bank of Argentina
government
BCRA Board and Institutional History, 1935–2025Board register listing Demian Reidel as Second Vice President
Published
2025-12-01
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 24
Central Bank of Argentina
government
G20: New Proposals to Enhance InfrastructureDemian Reidel identified as G20 Central Bank Deputy
Published
2018-05-19
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 25
Harvard Kennedy School, Mossavar-Rahmani Center
institutional
Demian Reidel — Senior Fellow profileEducation and historical roles in central banking, finance, and markets
Published
2019-01-01
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 26
Government of Argentina
government
President Javier Milei Announces Argentina's Nuclear PlanReidel identified as responsible for the nuclear plan
Published
2024-12-20
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 27
International Atomic Energy Agency
multilateral
Speaker biography — Demian ReidelBiography for the 2025 International Conference on Nuclear Security
Published
2025-05-01
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 28
Boletín Oficial de la República Argentina
government
Nucleoeléctrica Argentina board appointmentBoard appointment recorded following the 23 April 2025 assembly
Published
2025-04-30
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 29
La Nación
news
Demian Reidel left the board of Nucleoeléctrica ArgentinaReported end of board tenure
Published
2026-02-09
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 30
Physica A
academic
Statistical properties of random asymmetrical neural networksPeer-reviewed article; authors include D. Reidel
Published
1997-07-01
Accessed
2026-07-28
- 31
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
regulator
Progress at Vogtle Unit 4Documentary photograph, licensed CC BY 2.0
Published
2024-04-01
Accessed
2026-07-28